Initially, I wasn’t interested in December’s stats, as it really doesn’t tell much of a story (fourth quarter, in general, tends to be wonky), but I was intrigued by the data. First, we saw a month-over-month appreciation in December, and even though I felt it in the market (meaning buyers were gobbling up anything worth buying), I was still surprised. Then I looked at historical data, and sure enough, December closed sales usually are a tad higher than the month before (now I know). Second, inventory feels low, but it’s 22% higher than last year, so that surprised me as well. Interest rates are at the highest they have been in 7 months. The combination of higher rates and higher inventory might mean the market won’t be as bullish as I expected. That said, inventory is still low with only 1.6 months and rates aren’t that much higher (0.25 basis points higher, which is something, but not dramatic), so who knows. Time will tell.
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