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Inventory is at its highest level since 2019, homes are taking longer to sell, and the geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping buyer confidence. Buyer reluctance is real — and you feel it most on the homes that don’t sell the first weekend. Sellers need to win both the price war and the beauty contest. The market is still moving, but it is not forgiving.
Whew. There is a lot to unpack this month, so let’s get into it.
The inventory story is real and it’s the defining theme right now. Looking year-over-year, pending sales are up 5%, which is great, but active listings are up 18%, resulting in the highest inventory since 2019. The takeaway? Buyers are buying, but new inventory is outpacing the rate at which they’re buying. Months of inventory, the velocity of the market, sits at 2.9, which is solidly in a balanced market. I’ve always dreamed of a balanced market and now that I have it, I don’t quite know what to do with it.
And yet median prices are up month-over-month — though I don’t believe it. My faith in this metric continues to waver. Prices are down 3.3% year-over-year, which is probably the more honest read. I’ll be candid: I was expecting flatter pricing. Building inventory typically puts downward pressure on values, and the market did soften noticeably after the conflict with Iran. Uncertainty isn’t great for buyer confidence or decision-making. My best guess is that mix shift is doing some of the work here — if more higher-end homes closed in April, the median rises even if the broader market is softer. Median pricing is a slippery metric. I’ll be watching this closely.
Days on market are up 130% year-over-year — which sounds like a five-alarm fire until you realize we went from 13 days to 30. Thirteen days was the anomaly. Thirty days is just… a market. Pre-pandemic, nobody would have blinked at a 30-day average. This is normalization, not collapse. That said, the direction of travel is clear: homes that don’t sell in the first weekend are sitting longer, and buyer reluctance on those properties is palpable. Nearly two-thirds of homes are still selling within the first two weeks — and those are the ones getting full asking price.
Seattle continues to outpace the Eastside with 38% of Seattle homes selling over asking at a median of 6% above list, compared to 27% and 2% on the Eastside. That gap has been consistent all year. It’s a reminder that “the market” isn’t monolithic — conditions vary meaningfully by geography, price point, and product type. If you’re making decisions based on regional headlines, you may be working with the wrong map.
A word on interest rates. Hovering just over 6.5% today — let’s call it what it is: psychologically damning, even if actual volatility has been less than a third of a percent. Functionally, not much has changed.
Perceptually, crossing back over 6.5% feels like something. Here’s my honest take: I think now is a genuinely great time to buy — great enough that I’m actively trying to figure out how to buy something myself. Rates just above 6.5% are making buyers pause. The moment rates dip below 6%, those buyers flood back in, inventory gets absorbed, and competition drives prices up. Buy now and you’re essentially purchasing the absence of competition. That advantage tends to disappear quickly.
So what does this all mean?
Sellers: Think price war and beauty contest. The homes winning right now priced correctly from day one and showed up in their best condition. You don’t get a second first impression. When your home hits the market it’s exposed to the largest pool of buyers it will ever see. Price it accordingly and present it thoughtfully, or the market will price it for you. Not in a way you’ll like.
Buyers: More inventory, less competition, and rates that can be refinanced when they eventually move. Know your numbers, know your non-negotiables, and be ready to move with conviction when the right one shows up. Well-priced homes are still going in the first weekend.
The opportunity is real — but so is the homework.
As always — time will tell.
