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Prices are down 10% year over year. If you only read one number this month, make it that one. It tells the story.
At 4.1 months of inventory, we’re officially in a buyers’ market. For months I’ve said we were teetering on the edge, and now we’ve crossed it. The Eastside hasn’t been here in over a decade.
Now for my nerdiest data point of the month, and it’s one I’ve been waiting for: 20% of homes took more than 90 days to sell, and those homes closed at a median of 84.4% of their original list price. Measured against their last list price, they closed at 95.8%. Put those two numbers together and you get roughly 12% in price reductions before the final negotiation even started.
Why are we only seeing this now? A lot of sellers have been canceling and relisting after price drops of more than 5%. That wipes the listing history on sites like Zillow and Redfin, so a home that has been sitting for four months looks brand new to the public. (That’s a real failure of consumer transparency, but it’s a story for another time.) With enough of those homes finally closing, the full picture is coming into view, and it’s a sobering one.
For sellers: That 84.4% figure is the cost of chasing the market down. The homes that sat paid for it twice, once in time and again in price. Price it right the first time, which in a declining market means ahead of the curve. Show it at its absolute best, and treat the first two weeks as your audition. A cancel-and-relist may scrub the history online, but buyers’ agents can still see it.
For buyers: This is the market you’ve been waiting for. You have leverage, time, and choices. Ask how long a home has really been on the market, because the number online may not be the whole story. If the payment works and you plan to stay 3–5+ years, negotiate with confidence.
The market isn’t broken. It’s honest. And honesty, in pricing and in strategy, is what wins right now.
As always, time will tell.
