Months of inventory — how we take the pulse of the market — are down based on pending sales. That’s not surprising, given September’s dip in interest rates ahead of the Fed Funds rate cut, which temporarily boosted buyer confidence. That said, the last two weeks have slowed buyers down. Economic uncertainty isn’t great for decision-making (which, ironically, is exactly what makes now a great time to buy — more on that later).
Median prices are up 2% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year. Interest rates are hovering between 6% and 6.5%, and realistically, that’s probably where they’ll stay for the foreseeable future. (Reason #2 not to delay buying.)
At 2.3 months of inventory, we’re in a balanced market with a slight lean toward sellers. However, we still have more active inventory than we’ve seen in the last five years — (Reason #3 to buy now.) Homes that are well priced are selling fast — 12% of the market sold in the first weekend. But if a home has challenges that pricing doesn’t account for, or it’s simply overpriced, it won’t move without a reduction.
What does this mean?
Sellers: Price conservatively (yes, that means low).
Buyers: Honestly, now is the time — as long as you can afford the payment and plan to stay 3+ years (ideally 5+). Inventory is solid, rates are likely to hold (and can be refinanced later), and economic uncertainty is causing other buyers to pause. That combination creates opportunity.
If you’ve been following real estate news lately, you’ve probably seen headlines saying home prices are flat. And at first glance, that sounds simple enough. But here’s the thing. The reality isn’t quite that straightforward.
In most places, prices aren’t flat at all.
What the Data Really Shows
While we’ve definitely seen prices moderate from the rapid and unsustainable climb in 2020-2022, how much they’ve changed is going to be different everywhere.
If you look at data from ResiClub and Zillow for the 50 largest metros, this becomes very clear. The real story is split right down the middle. Half of the metros are still seeing prices inch higher. The other half? Prices are coming down slightly (see graph below).
The big takeaway here is “flat” doesn’t mean prices are holding steady everywhere. What the numbers actually show is how much price trends are going to vary depending on where you are.
One factor that’s driving the divide? Inventory. The Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) of Harvard University explains:
“ . . . price trends are beginning to diverge in markets across the country. Prices are declining in a growing number of markets where inventories have soared while they continue to climb in markets where for-sale inventories remain tight.”
When you average those very different trends together, you get a number that looks like it’s flat. But it doesn’t give you the real story and it’s not what most markets are feeling today. You deserve more than that.
And just in case you’re really focusing on the declines, remember those are primarily places where prices rose too much, too fast just a few years ago. Prices went up roughly 50% nationally over the past 5 years, and even more than that in some of the markets that are experiencing a bigger correction today. So, a modest drop in some local pockets still puts most of those homeowners ahead when it comes to the overall value of their home. And based on the fundamentals of today’s housing market, experts are not projecting a national decline going forward.
So, what’s actually important for you to know?
If You’re Buying…
You need to know what’s happening in your area because that’s going to influence everything from how quickly you need to make an offer to how much negotiating power you’ll have once you do.
In a market where prices are still inching up, waiting around could mean paying more down the line.
In a market where they’re easing, you may be able to ask for things like repairs or closing cost help to sweeten the deal.
The bottom line? Knowing your local trend puts you in the driver’s seat.
If You’re Selling…
You’ll want to be aware of local trends, so you’ll know how to price your house and how much you can expect to negotiate.
In a market where prices are still rising, you may not need to make many compromises to get your home sold.
But if you’re in a market where prices are coming down, setting the right price from the start and being willing to negotiate becomes much more important.
The big action item for homeowners? Sellers need to have an agent’s local perspective if they want to avoid making the wrong call on pricing – and homes that are priced right are definitely selling.
The Real Story Is Local
The national averages can point to broad trends, and that’s helpful context. But sometimes you’re going to need a local point of view because what’s happening in your zip code could look different. As Anthony Smith, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, article puts it:
“While national prices continued to climb, local market conditions have become increasingly fragmented…This regional divide is expected to continue influencing price dynamics and sales activity as the fall season gets underway.”
That’s why the smartest move, whether you’re buying or selling, is to lean on a local agent who’s an expert on your market.
They’ll have the data and the experience to tell you whether prices in your area are holding steady, moving up, or softening a bit – and how that could impact your move.
Bottom Line
Headlines calling home prices flat may be grabbing attention, but they’re not giving you the full picture.
Has anyone taken the time to walk you through what we’re seeing right here, right now?
If you want the real story about what prices are doing in our market, let’s connect.
If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:
“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”
So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:
More homes to choose from
Less competition from other buyers
More time to browse
Better home prices
Sellers who are more willing to negotiate
Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:
“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”
Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18
What the Experts Are Saying
And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”
Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:
“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”
And NerdWallet says:
“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”
How To Get Ready for this Golden Window
To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market’s peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready.
Bottom Line
If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play.
Want help lining up your strategy? Let’s have a quick conversation so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.
If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here’s a trend worth paying attention to:
More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.
A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):
One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.
How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power
As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus:
Less financial stress as you age
More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home
And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction
Here’s how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it’s more realistic than you may think.
In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below):
For Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free.
Because downsizing isn’t about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring.
Bottom Line
You’ve worked hard for your home. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you.
Let’s talk about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?
Year-over-year, median prices are basically flat, but they did slip month-over-month for the 4th month in a row. As always, take pricing with a grain of salt—it’s one of the trickiest stats to pin down. With September’s burst of activity and (slightly) lower interest rates, buyer demand will likely keep prices steady through the rest of the year.
Inventory now sits at 2.5 months—technically a balanced market. But here’s the kicker: this is the first time in a decade we’ve seen August’s months of inventory at this level. It feels dramatic because it’s new, but it’s not doomsday. Think of it as shifting from the freeway fast lane at 85 mph down to a solid 55 mph. Is it slower? Sure. But you’re still moving forward.
And the sky? Definitely not falling. Roughly one-third of homes are still selling at or above asking, and two-thirds are going under contract within 30 days. That’s not weakness—it’s recalibration toward a healthier, more sustainable pace.
Buyers: enjoy the breathing room, but stay sharp—19% of homes still sold with multiple offers last month.
Sellers: pricing and presentation matter more than ever. Nail both in the first two weeks if you want top results.
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion.
The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates
Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):
So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.
Why Markets Already Saw This Cut Coming
Here’s the part that may surprise you. Mortgage rates tend to respond to what the financial markets think the Fed will do, before the Fed officially acts. Basically, when markets anticipate a Fed cut, that outlook gets priced into mortgage rates ahead of time.
That’s exactly what happened after weaker-than-expected jobs reports on August 1 and September 5. Each time, mortgage rates ticked down as financial markets grew more confident a cut was coming soon. And even though inflation rose slightly in the latest CPI report, the Fed is still expected to make a cut.
So, if the Fed goes with a 25-basis point cut, as expected, that’s likely already baked in to current mortgage rates, and we may not see a dramatic drop.
But if they go bigger and drop their Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points instead, mortgage rates could come down more than they already have.
So, Where Do Mortgage Rates Go from Here?
While the upcoming cut may not move the needle much, many experts expect the Fed could cut the Federal Funds Rate more than once before the end of the year. Of course, that’s if the economy continues to cool (see graph below):
As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:
“For mortgage rates, investor confidence in a forthcoming rate-cutting cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity.”
If multiple rate cuts happen, or even if markets just believe they will, mortgage rates could ease further in the months ahead. But here’s the catch – all of this depends on how the economy evolves. Surprise inflation data or unexpected shifts could quickly change the outlook.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates likely won’t drop sharply overnight, and they won’t mirror the Fed’s moves one-for-one. But if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, and markets continue to expect it, mortgage rates could trend lower later this year and into 2026.
If you’ve been waiting and watching the housing market, now’s the time to talk strategy. Even small changes in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability, and understanding what’s ahead helps you make the best decision for your situation.
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