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February Eastside Stats
Median pricing crept-up 2% since last month but is down 13% year-over-year. (Note, year-over-year deprecation will continue through June or July.) Interestingly, King County’s year-over-year pricing is flat and Seattle is up 2%, (but, they both will have depreciation next month). Making an analogy, the Eastside was an intense roller coaster like California Screaming/Incredicoaster; whereas, King County and Seattle were a kiddie coaster, like Goofy’s Sky School. Looking bigger picture at Eastside year-over-year pricing, we had 32% (!!) appreciation in 2022 and 22% (!) appreciation in 2021, which lands us 48% higher than January 2020 pricing—not too shabby. Those who bought around the peak should rest assured that they secured the lowest interest rates in history and their monthly payment is lower than if they bought at today’s pricing (and hopefully they can hold on to the home for a several years as pricing will rise). Lastly, at 1.4 months of inventory, we are solidly in a sellers’ market. We need more inventory, which is usually the case in January, so I’m not panicking (yet). Some say the Super Bowl is the kick-off of the real estate season, but I think it’s after mid-winter break (the week of President’s Day) where we really start to see more inventory. Time will tell.
Experts Forecast a Turnaround in the Housing Market in 2023
The housing market has gone through a lot of change recently, and much of that was a result of how quickly mortgage rates rose last year.
Now, as we move through 2023, there are signs things are finally going to turn around. Home price appreciation is slowing from the recent frenzy, mortgage rates are coming down, inflation is easing, and overall market activity is starting to pick up. All of that’s great news for the housing market this year. Here’s what experts are saying.
Cristian deRitis, Deputy Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics:
“The current state of the housing market is that it is certainly in transition.”
Susan Wachter, Professor of Real Estate and Finance, University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School:
“Housing is going to ease up. I think 2023 will be a turnaround year.”
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“Mortgage rates have fallen in the recent past weeks, so I’m very hopeful that the worst in home sales is probably coming to an end.”
Robert Dietz, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President, National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):
“. . . it appears a turning point for housing lies ahead. In the coming quarters, single-family home building will rise off of cycle lows as mortgage rates are expected to trend lower and boost housing affordability.”
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about making a move this year, a turnaround in the housing market could be exactly what you’ve been waiting for. Let’s connect to talk about the latest trends in our area.
Why You Shouldn’t Fear Today’s Foreclosure Headlines
If you’ve seen recent headlines about foreclosures surging in the housing market, you’re certainly not alone. There’s no doubt, the stories in the media can be pretty confusing right now. They may even make you think twice about buying a home for fear that prices could crash. The reality is, the data shows a foreclosure crisis is not where the market is headed, and understanding what that really means is mission critical if you want to know the truth about what’s happening today. Here’s a deeper look.
According to the Year-End 2022 U.S. Foreclosure Market Report from ATTOM, foreclosure filings are up 115% from 2021, but down 34% from 2019. As media headlines grab onto this 115% increase, it’s more important than ever to put that percentage into context.
While the number of foreclosure filings did more than double last year, we need to remember why that happened and how it compares to more normal, pre-pandemic years in the market. Thanks to the forbearance program and other relief options for homeowners, foreclosure filings were down to record-low levels in 2020 and 2021, so any increase last year is — no surprise — a jump up. Rick Sharga, Executive VP of Market Intelligence at ATTOM, notes:
“Eighteen months after the end of the government’s foreclosure moratorium, and with less than five percent of the 8.4 million borrowers who entered the CARES Act forbearance program remaining, foreclosure activity remains significantly lower than it was prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. It seems clear that government and mortgage industry efforts during the pandemic, coupled with a strong economy, have helped prevent millions of unnecessary foreclosures.”
Clearly, these options meant millions of homeowners could stay in their homes, allowing them to get back on their feet during a very challenging period. With home values rising at the same time, many homeowners who may have found themselves facing foreclosure under other circumstances were able to leverage their equity and sell their houses rather than face foreclosure, and that trend continues today.
And remember, as the graph below shows, foreclosures today are far below the record-high 2.9 million that were reported in 2010 when the housing market crashed.
So, while foreclosures are rising, keeping perspective in mind is key. As Bill McBride, Founder and Author of Calculated Risk, noted just last week:
“The bottom line is there will be an increase in foreclosures over the next year (from record low levels), but there will not be a huge wave of distressed sales as happened following the housing bubble. The distressed sales during the housing bust led to cascading price declines, and that will not happen this time.”
Bottom Line
Right now, putting the data into context is more important than ever. While the housing market is experiencing an expected rise in foreclosures, it’s nowhere near the crisis levels seen when the housing bubble burst, and that won’t lead to a crash in home prices.
Have Home Values Hit Bottom?
Whether you’re already a homeowner or you’re looking to become one, the recent headlines about home prices may leave you with more questions than answers. News stories are talking about home prices falling, and that’s raising concerns about a repeat of what happened to prices in the crash in 2008.
One of the questions that’s on many minds, based on those headlines, is: how much will home prices decline? But what you may not realize is expert forecasters aren’t calling for a free fall in prices. In fact, if you look at the latest data, there’s a case to be made that the biggest portion of month-over-month price depreciation nationally may already be behind us – and even those numbers weren’t significant declines on the national level. Instead of how far will they drop, the question becomes: have home values hit bottom?
Let’s take a look at the latest data from several reputable industry sources (see chart below):
The chart above provides a look at the most recent reports from Case-Shiller, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), Black Knight, and CoreLogic. It shows how, on a national scale, home values have changed month-over-month since January 2022. November and December numbers have yet to come out.
Let’s focus in on what the red numbers tell us. The red numbers are the change in home values over the last four months that have been published. And if we isolate the last four months, what the data shows is, in each case, home price depreciation peaked in August.
While that doesn’t guarantee home price depreciation has hit bottom, it confirms prices aren’t in a free fall, and it may be an early signal that the worst is already behind us. As the numbers for November and December are released, data will be able to further validate this national trend.
Bottom Line
Home prices month-over-month have depreciated for the past four months on record, but there’s a strong case to be made that the worst may be behind us. If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices in our local market, let’s connect.
January Eastside Stats
Stats this time of the year are always a bit wonky, as there aren’t many new listings and many homes expire/cancel, so the data isn’t ‘typical’. New and pending sales were about equal, but several listings expired/cancelled (many of these will be relisted), so inventory went down. Lower inventory is good for sellers but not terrible for buyers, as we are still in a balanced market with 2.5 months of inventory. Pricing is an interesting story. Month-over-month, prices are down 1%, so small depreciation for 2 months in a row. The seemingly shocking news is year-over-year prices are down 15% (!), but we knew this was coming. We are still up 17% since 2020, so the sky isn’t falling—just a little correcting. Also, interesting, about a third of the homes sold in 2 weeks for an average of 2% below list price (6% sold in less than a week for an average of 2% over asking price). After the first 15 days on the market, homes consistently sell for 5% below asking. As for January, buyer activity appears strong, so I’m cautiously optimistic for a healthy first quarter, but time will tell.
