EconomyMarket AdviceMortgage Rates May 7, 2024

What Is Going on with Mortgage Rates?

You may have heard mortgage rates are going to stay a bit higher for longer than originally expected. And if you’re wondering why, the answer lies in the latest economic data. Here’s a quick overview of what’s happening with mortgage rates and what experts say is ahead.

Economic Factors That Impact Mortgage Rates

When it comes to mortgage rates, things like the job market, the pace of inflation, consumer spending, geopolitical uncertainty, and more all have an impact. Another factor at play is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and its decisions on monetary policy. And that’s what you may be hearing a lot about right now. Here’s why.

The Fed decided to start raising the Federal Funds Rate to try to slow down the economy (and inflation) in early 2022. That rate impacts how much it costs banks to borrow money from each other. It doesn’t determine mortgage rates, but mortgage rates do respond when this happens. And that’s when mortgage rates started to really climb.

And while there’s been a ton of headway seeing inflation come down since then, it still isn’t back to where the Fed wants it to be (2%). The graph below shows inflation since the spike in early 2022, and where we are now compared to their target rate:

As the graph shows, we’re much closer to their goal of 2% inflation than we were in 2022 – but we’re not there yet. It’s even inched up a hair over the last 3 months – and that’s having an impact on the Fed’s plans. As Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Macexplains:

“Strong incoming economic and inflation data has caused the market to re-evaluate the path of monetary policy, leading to higher mortgage rates.”

Basically, long story short, inflation and its impact on the broader economy are going to be key moving forward. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:

It’s the longer-term outlook for economic growth and inflation that have the greatest bearing on the level and direction of mortgage rates. Inflation, inflation, inflation — that’s really the hub on the wheel.”

When Will Mortgage Rates Come Down?

Based on current market data, experts think inflation will be more under control and we still may see the Fed lower the Federal Funds Rate this year. It’ll just be later than originally expected. As Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), said in response to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision yesterday:

“The FOMC did not change the federal funds target at its May meeting, as incoming data regarding the strength of the economy and stubbornly high inflation have resulted in a shift in the timing of a first rate cut. We expect mortgage rates to drop later this year, but not as far or as fast as we previously had predicted.

In the simplest sense, what this says is that mortgage rates should still come down later this year. But timing can shift as new employment and economic data come in, geopolitical uncertainty remains, and more. This is one of the reasons it’s usually not a good strategy to try to time the market. An article in Bankrate gives buyers this advice:

“ . . . trying to time the market is generally a bad idea. If buying a house is the right move for you now, don’t stress about trends or economic outlooks.”

Bottom Line

If you have questions about what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for you, let’s connect.

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Now’s a Great Time To Sell Your House

Thinking about selling your house? If you are, you might be weighing factors like today’s mortgage rates and your own changing needs to figure out your next move.

Here’s something else to consider. According to the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) from Fannie Maethe percent of respondents who say it’s a good time to sell is on the rise (see graph below):

Why Are Sellers Feeling so Optimistic?

One reason why is because right now is traditionally the best time of year to sell a house. A recent article from Bankrate says:

“Late spring and early summer are generally considered the best times to sell a house. . . . While today’s rates are relatively high, low inventory is still keeping sellers in the driver’s seat in most markets.”

These are the seasons when most people move. That means buyer demand grows. And because there still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet that demand, sellers see some serious perks. According to Rocket Mortgage:

“Homes that are listed at the end of spring and the beginning of summer typically sell faster at a higher sales price.”

What Does This Mean for You?

More sellers are coming to realize conditions are ripe for a move. And that’s one reason why we’re seeing more homeowners put their homes up for sale. If you think you might want to get in on the action, it’s a good idea to start preparing.

A local real estate agent can help you get your house ready by offering advice on how best to fix it up and make it appealing to buyers in your area.

They also know if you list during the peak buying seasons of spring and early summer, you might sell quickly and for a higher price.

Bottom Line

If you list during the spring and early summer, you might sell your house quickly and for a higher price. When you’re ready to make the most of today’s seller’s market, let’s get in touch.

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The stats finally caught up! Year-over-year appreciation is a whomping 19% with a majority of that realized in 2024. BUT we aren’t quite at the peak of 2022…I anticipate appreciation to slow and prices to level out for the rest of the year, but time will tell. At 0.6 months supply of inventory, there simply aren’t enough homes for buyers and supply/demand is what drives prices. But, with prices increasing and no relief in interest rates, affordability is an issue that will slow many buyers.

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Should I Move with Today’s Mortgage Rates?

When mortgage rates spiked up over the last few years, some homeowners put their plans to move on pause. Maybe you did too because you didn’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate for your next home. But is that still the right strategy for you?

In today’s market, data shows more homeowners are getting used to where rates are and thinking it may be time to move. As Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analyticsexplains:

“Listings are up a bit as life events and job changes are putting increasing pressure on locked-in homeowners to sell their homes. Homeowners may also be slowly coming to the realization that mortgage rates aren’t going back anywhere near the rate on their existing mortgage.

recent study from Bank of America sheds light on some of the things homeowners say would make them sell, even with rates where they are right now (see visual below):

What Would Motivate You To Move?

Now that you know why other people would move, take a minute to think about what would make a move worth it for you. Is it time to take a chance and go for your dream job, even though it’s not local? Are you looking for a neighborhood that has more to offer and a close-knit sense of community? Maybe you just need more space, you’re looking for your next great adventure, or you want a house that opens up rental opportunities to pad your income.

And here’s something else to consider. Mortgage rates are still expected to go down over the course of the year. And once that happens, there’s going to be a big rush of buyers jumping back into the market. While you could delay your plans until rates drop, you’ll only have more competition with those buyers if you do.

So, does that mean it’s worth it to move now, even with rates where they are? The answer is: that it depends.

You’ll want to consider today’s mortgage rates, where they’re expected to go from here, and what would prompt you to want to make a change as you decide on your next steps. An expert can help with that.

Bottom Line

Other homeowners are getting used to rates and deciding to move. Let’s chat to go over what matters most to you and if it’s time for you to jump back into the market too.

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Boomers Moving Will Be More Like a Gentle Tide Than a Tsunami

Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know. That phrase refers to the idea that a lot of baby boomers are going to move or downsize all at once. And the fear is that a sudden influx of homes for sale would have a big impact on housing. That’s because it would create a whole lot more competition for smaller homes and would throw off the balance of supply and demand, which ultimately would impact home prices.

But here’s the thing. There are a couple of faults in that logic. Let’s break them down and put your mind at ease.

Not All Baby Boomers Plan To Move

For starters, plenty of baby boomers don’t plan on moving at all. A study from the AARP says more than half of adults aged 65 and older want to stay in their homes and not move as they age (see graph below):

While it’s true circumstances may change and some people who don’t plan to move (the red in the chart above) may realize they need to down the road, the vast majority are counting on aging in place.

As for those who stay put, they’ll likely modify their homes as their needs change over time. And when updating their existing home won’t work, some will buy a second home and keep their original one as an investment to fuel generational wealth for their loved ones. As an article from Inman explains:

“Many boomers have no desire to retire fully and take up less space . . . Many will modify their current home, and the wealthiest will opt to have multiple homes.”

Even Those Who Do Move Won’t Do It All at Once

While not all baby boomers are looking to sell their homes and move – the ones who do won’t all do it at the same time. Instead, it’ll happen slowly over many years. As Freddie Mac says:

We forecast the ‘tsunami’ will be more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit of 9.2 million Boomers by 2035 . . .”

As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First Americansays:

Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”

Bottom Line

If you’re stressed about a Silver Tsunami shaking the housing market overnight, don’t be. Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time.

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