Market Advice • Mortgage Rates • December 21, 2021

Homebuyers: Be Ready To Act This Winter

by Sandi Tampa

To succeed as a buyer in today’s market, it’s important to understand which market trends will have the greatest impact on your home search. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, says there are two factors every buyer should keep their eyes on:

“Going forward, the conditions buyers face are primarily dependent on two things: mortgage rates and housing supply.”

Here’s a look at each one.

Mortgage Rates Projected To Rise in 2022

As a buyer, your interest rate directly impacts how much you’ll pay on your monthly mortgage when you purchase a home. Rates are beginning to rise, and experts forecast they’ll continue going up in 2022 (see graph below):As the graph shows, mortgage rates are expected to climb next year. But they’re still low when you compare to where they were just a few years ago. That presents today’s buyers with some motivation to lock in a low mortgage rate before they climb higher.

More Homes Are Expected To Be Available This Season

The other market condition buyers need to monitor is the number of homes available for sale today. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows the current supply of inventory sits at just 2.4-months. To put that into perspective, a 6-month supply is ideal for a balanced market where there are enough homes to meet buyer demand.

However, there may be good news for buyers who are waiting for more options. A recent realtor.com survey shows more sellers are planning to list their homes this winter, meaning more choices will likely be available soon.

What Does That Mean for You?

Even if your options improve some this season, it won’t significantly shift market conditions overnight. According to NAR, many more listings need to be available to move closer to a more neutral market:

“Given the average monthly demand . . . , 3.55 million homes should be on the market to meet a level of inventory equal to six months of demand, implying a shortage of homes for sale of 2.24 million.”

So remember, even with more homes expected to come to market this season, competition among buyers will remain fierce as there still won’t be enough homes for sale to meet the current demand. That means you’ll need to act quickly when you’re ready to make an offer.

Bottom Line

If you’re planning on buying a home this winter, more options are welcome news, but it doesn’t mean you should slow down. Let’s connect today so you have an expert on your side to help act as quickly as possible when the right home for you hits the market.

Home Knowledge • December 14, 2021

A Happy Tail: Pets and the Homebuying Process

by Sandi Tampa

A Happy Tail: Pets and the Homebuying Process [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

It’s no secret that we love our furry friends – about 70% of U.S. households have pets. What may come as a surprise is how large a role they play in the homebuying process.
Americans spend $1,163 a year on their pets, and nearly half of pet owners say they would move for better accommodations and amenities for their pets.
If you’re thinking of adding a furry friend, or if you already have, let’s connect to discuss how you can find a home that meets all your pet’s needs.

Video Blogs • December 10, 2021

December Stats

by Sandi Tampa

Inventory dipped to a jaw-dropping 6 days (0.2 months). Buyer demand has been unseasonably high and there simply aren’t enough homes for sale. For the homes that sold quickly, about two-thirds of the listings, they sold 14% over asking price. This is a jump from the previous months which were 11% and 12% range. Bottom line, the market is NOT experiencing our normal seasonal slowdown. Not sure what to expect for January, which is when the market usually takes off. I certainly don’t anticipate a slowdown in the next couple of months. Interest rates are the wild card, but even an increase (and they will go up slowly) shouldn’t impact the market significantly with this level of demand.

Home Knowledge • December 7, 2021

A Checklist for Selling Your House This Winter

by Sandi Tampa

A Checklist for Selling Your House This Winter [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Market Advice • November 23, 2021

Home Sales About To Surge? We May See a Winter Like Never Before.

by Sandi Tampa

Like most industries, residential real estate has a seasonality to it. For example, toy stores sell more toys in October, November, and December than they do in any other three-month span throughout the year. More cars are sold in the U.S. during the second quarter (April, May, and June) than in any other quarter of the year.

Real estate is very similar. The number of homes sold in the spring is almost always much greater than at any other time of the year. It’s even labeled as the spring buying season. Historically, the number of buyers and listings for sale significantly increase in the spring and remains strong throughout the summer. Once fall sets in, the number of buyers and sellers typically drops off.

Last year, however, that seasonality didn’t happen. The outbreak of the virus and subsequent slowing of the economy limited sales during the spring market. These sales were pushed back later in the year, and last fall and winter saw a dramatic increase in home sales over previous years. The only thing that held the market back was the extremely limited supply of homes for sale.

What About This Winter?

Some experts thought we’d return to the industry’s normal seasonality this winter with both the number of purchasers and houses available for sale falling off. However, data now shows that neither of those situations will likely occur. Buyer demand is still extremely strong, and it appears we may soon see a somewhat uncharacteristic increase in the number of homes coming to the market.

Buyer Demand Remains Strong

The latest Showing Index from ShowingTime, which tracks the average number of monthly showings on available homes, indicates buyer activity was slightly lower than at the same time last year but much higher than any of the three previous years (see chart below):A report from realtor.com confirms buying activity remains strong in the existing home sales market:

“New housing data shows 2021’s feverish home sales pace broke a yearly record in October, . . . with last month marking the eighth straight month of buyers snatching up homes more quickly than the fastest pace in previous years. . . .”

Buyer activity for newly constructed homes is also very strong. Ali Wolf, Chief Economist for Zonda, recently reported that Stuart Miller, the Executive Chairman of Lennar, one of the nation’s largest home builders, said this about demand:

“There is still a great deal of demand at our sales centers with people lining up and not enough supply.”

The only question heading into this winter is whether the number of listings available could come close to meeting this buyer demand. We may have just received the answer to that question.

Sellers Are About To List – Right Now

Instead of waiting for the normal spring buying market, new research indicates that homeowners thinking about selling are about to put their homes on the market this winter.

Speaking to the release of a report on this recent research, George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research for realtor.com, said:

“The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.”

Here are some highlights in the report:

Of homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

65% – Have just listed (19%) or plan to list this winter
93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home, including working with an agent (28%)
36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

33% – Have realized they want different home features
37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
23% – Are looking for a home office

Data shows buyer demand remains unusually strong going into this winter. Research indicates the supply of inventory is about to increase. This could be a winter real estate market like never before.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying or selling, now is the time to have a heart-to-heart conversation with a real estate professional in your market, as things are about to change in an unexpected way.

Video Blogs • November 17, 2021

Weekly Update – November 17th

by Sandi Tampa

Market Advice • Real Estate Forecast • November 15, 2021

Why a Wave of Foreclosures Is Not on the Way

by Sandi Tampa

With forbearance plans coming to an end, many are concerned the housing market will experience a wave of foreclosures similar to what happened after the housing bubble 15 years ago. Here are a few reasons why that won’t happen.

There are fewer homeowners in trouble this time

After the last housing crash, about 9.3 million households lost their homes to a foreclosure, short sale, or because they simply gave it back to the bank.

As stay-at-home orders were issued early last year, the fear was the pandemic would impact the housing industry in a similar way. Many projected up to 30% of all mortgage holders would enter the forbearance program. In reality, only 8.5% actually did, and that number is now down to 2.2%.

As of last Friday, the total number of mortgages still in forbearance stood at 1,221,000. That’s far fewer than the 9.3 million households that lost their homes just over a decade ago.

Most of the mortgages in forbearance have enough equity to sell their homes

Due to rapidly rising home prices over the last two years, of the 1.22 million homeowners currently in forbearance, 93% have at least 10% equity in their homes. This 10% equity is important because it enables homeowners to sell their homes and pay the related expenses instead of facing the hit on their credit that a foreclosure or short sale would create.

The remaining 7% might not have the option to sell, but if the entire 7% of those 1.22 million homes went into foreclosure, that would total about 85,400 mortgages. To give that number context, here are the annual foreclosure numbers for the three years leading up to the pandemic:

2017: 314,220
2018: 279,040
2019: 277,520

The probable number of foreclosures coming out of the forbearance program is nowhere near the number of foreclosures that impacted the housing crash 15 years ago. It’s actually less than one-third of any of the three years prior to the pandemic.

The current market can absorb listings coming to the market

When foreclosures hit the market back in 2008, there was an oversupply of houses for sale. It’s exactly the opposite today. In 2008, there was over a nine-month supply of listings on the market. Today, that number is less than a three-month supply. Here’s a graph showing the difference between the two markets.

Why a Wave of Foreclosures Is Not on the Way | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The data indicates why Ivy Zelman, founder of the major housing market analytical firm Zelman and Associates, was on point when she stated:

“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”

Video Blogs • November 11, 2021

Weekly Video – October Stats!

by Sandi Tampa

Real Estate Forecast • November 9, 2021

October Eastside Residential Statistics

by Sandi Tampa

The market tightened in October with months of inventory dropping from 0.4 months to 0.3 months. That might seem like a small change, but it’s a 25% decrease from an already low number. The supply/demand imbalance resulted in 67% of the homes selling for a median of 12% over asking price. The homes selling with multiple offers still tend to be underpriced, but they are going higher than expected, so appreciation is still occurring. Historically, appreciation usually stalls by this time of the year. Year-over-year, prices are up 30%, which is likely higher than the actual number (appreciation is tricky to measure). Bottom line, it continues to be a great time to sell. It also continues to be tough for buyers, but with the right strategy and team it is completely possible. Please let me know if you would like to know what your home is worth or if you want to discuss winning in this crazy market. I am here to help!

Video Blogs • November 3, 2021

Weekly Update—adding a new team member.

by Sandi Tampa