TL;DR: Prices are down and trending lower. The market is balanced but feels different than it did a year ago. Well-priced homes are still moving — but buyers know they have options.
May data is in, and I’m going to be straight with you: prices are down. The median sold price on the Eastside came in at $1.51M — down 6% from April and down 8% year over year. That’s the second consecutive year of year-over-year declines.
And when you zoom out, the picture is genuinely erratic — May’s number is higher than May 2023, but lower than 2022, 2024, and 2025. There’s no clean story here, which is exactly why I’d caution against anchoring to any single data point. What I can say is that the overall direction is downward, and I think it’s worth saying that plainly.
That said, the market isn’t frozen. Nearly 80% of homes sold within 30 days, and 41% sold at or above list price — essentially flat from last month’s 44%. At 2.9 months of inventory, we are in a balanced market, but we are in uncharted recent territory.
Last year at this time we were at 2.1 months — also technically balanced — and this doesn’t feel the same. That extra inventory is real, buyers know it, and they’re acting accordingly.
So what does this mean?
Sellers: This is not a “let’s just try it” market. With inventory at decade-high levels and prices trending down, aspirational pricing isn’t a strategy — it’s a liability. Price based on what’s pending and what’s actively competing with you right now, not what closed a few months ago. First impressions are everything, and you don’t get a second one.
Buyers: If the monthly payment works and you plan to stay five or more years, this is genuinely a good time to buy. More inventory, more negotiating room, and prices that are lower than they were a year ago. If the time is right for you, have the courage to jump in!
If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.
Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.
The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.
Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.
But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.
That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):
So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.
Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated
While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.
Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.
Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.
Existing Home Sales Revised Lower
Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.
That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.
Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year.
Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:
“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”
There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.
So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.
New Home Sales Also Slowed
Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.
Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.
But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.
Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.
Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise
This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.
They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.
Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.
Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.
Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.
Bottom Line
The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.
Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.
So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.
If you want to know what’s happening in our local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, let’s connect.
You may be telling yourself you’re going to wait to move – maybe you’re hoping mortgage rates will come down, prices will fall, or the market will feel a little easier.
And honestly? A lot of people feel that way right now. But here’s what some are starting to realize.
Waiting doesn’t usually fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place. Your family still desperately needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too…empty.
Your parents or grandparents still need you to live closer.
You just got married… or divorced.
Your vision of retirement has you living somewhere else.
Eventually, life can reach a point where waiting feels harder than moving.
That’s why some people are still deciding to buy right now, even in today’s market. Not because conditions are perfect. But because the life changes behind their move never really went away.
And maybe that’s exactly where you are too. If so, you’re certainly not alone.
The Real Reasons People Move Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt like they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter the market.
That’s an important reminder right now. Sure, the dollars and cents of your move have to make sense for you. But big life changes happen whether mortgage rates and home prices are high, low, or somewhere in between.
And those big life events happen more than you may think. NAR says roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span (see graph below):
These are exactly the kinds of things that can change how much space you need, where you want to live, or what kind of lifestyle makes sense now. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, explains:
“Life doesn’t stand still—people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood.”
And that’s what makes waiting so hard. Every month you spend hoping the market changes is another month living in a house that no longer works for your life. It’s stressful to feel stuck. And that feeling usually doesn’t disappear.
There May Be More Opportunity Than You Think But while affordability is still a challenge, there may still be a way for you to make your move.
The number of homes for sale has been growing for 4 straight years (see graph below). That means more homes to choose from and, in some markets, more room to negotiate than buyers had just a few years ago.
That doesn’t mean moving is suddenly easy. But it does mean some buyers are finding ways to make a move work. So, if you’ve been putting your plans on hold, maybe the question isn’t just:
“What’s the market doing?” or “When will it get better?”
Maybe ask yourself this, too: “Can I still live where I’m at right now and make it work?”
If the answer to that second question is “no,” it may be worth having a conversation about what your options look like today – despite where rates or prices are. You could find your move is still possible after all. With more homes for sale, there’s a better chance to find one that fits your life (and your budget) right now.
Bottom Line Life changes. Priorities shift. Families grow. Kids move out. Careers evolve. And eventually, the house you’re in may stop fitting the life you’re living.
If that’s been weighing on you lately, let’s talk through what your options could realistically look like today, no matter where rates or prices are.
Life can’t always wait for perfect market conditions. Maybe you don’t have to either.
At some point, as you start thinking about the years ahead, this question tends to come up:
“Could I stay here long-term… or would it make more sense to move?”
It’s not always urgent. It often shows up in small moments, like going up and down the stairs, keeping up with the maintenance, or just thinking about what the next chapter of your life might look like in this home.
And for most people, the answer is simple. They want to stay.
The USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology found about 90% of adults over 65 prefer to stay in their homes as they get older (see below):
But even if staying feels like the right answer, it’s still worth thinking ahead about what that might actually look like. That’s where the right agent can really help.
What You Need To Plan for If You’re Staying in Your Home
Aging in place is definitely possible. But it’s better if you have a plan. And here’s why. The home that once worked perfectly may need to change with you over the years. And it’s easier if you can anticipate those expenses.
Sometimes that means small updates: like adding grab bars in the shower.
Other times, you’ll have to make bigger decisions: like reworking layouts or moving key spaces to the first floor.
Some of those changes are going to be simple. Others can be a meaningful investment. And that’s why thinking about it early matters. Not because you need to decide anything right now, but because it gives you time.
Time to understand what your home may need.
Time to explore your options.
Time to find the right contractors.
Time to space out the expense of the upgrades.
According to ElderLife Financial, here’s a rough baseline of what it could cost depending on what needs to be done (see below):
And don’t worry. If your heart is really set on staying, but the costs feel like a concern, it helps to know you have options. Depending on your situation, there may be financial assistance programs available, along with tools like home warranties to help manage unexpected costs.
Just remember, if you’re thinking about making updates, it’s always worth having a quick conversation before you start. A real estate agent can help you understand which changes tend to make sense for your situation and how they may impact your home’s value based on your local market.
When Moving Might Make More Sense
But staying isn’t always the best fit for every situation. According to Pegasus Senior Living:
“While most seniors hope to age in place, practical considerations sometimes make selling a home the wiser choice.”
Sometimes, it comes down to a simple shift: when the home that once made life easier, starts to make it harder.
That might look like:
Maintenance or yardwork that’s starting to feel overwhelming
Stairs or layouts that are getting harder to manage day-to-day
Or needing more support or care or being too far from loved ones
And sometimes, it’s not about necessity at all. It’s about lifestyle. Some homeowners just don’t want to live through major renovations. Others are ready to simplify, downsize, or move somewhere that better fits this next chapter, whether that’s a smaller home, a 55+ community, or a place closer to family.
For them, moving simply means making daily life easier.
Bottom Line
There’s no one-size-fits-all answer here.
Some people stay and make updates. Others move to simplify things. Either can be the right choice. The goal isn’t to pick one today. It’s to understand your options early, so when the time comes, you feel confident instead of rushed.
And if you ever want a sounding board to think through what the future could look like for you, let’s connect.
Inventory is at its highest level since 2019, homes are taking longer to sell, and the geopolitical backdrop isn’t helping buyer confidence. Buyer reluctance is real — and you feel it most on the homes that don’t sell the first weekend. Sellers need to win both the price war and the beauty contest. The market is still moving, but it is not forgiving.
Whew. There is a lot to unpack this month, so let’s get into it.
The inventory story is real and it’s the defining theme right now. Looking year-over-year, pending sales are up 5%, which is great, but active listings are up 18%, resulting in the highest inventory since 2019. The takeaway? Buyers are buying, but new inventory is outpacing the rate at which they’re buying. Months of inventory, the velocity of the market, sits at 2.9, which is solidly in a balanced market. I’ve always dreamed of a balanced market and now that I have it, I don’t quite know what to do with it.
And yet median prices are up month-over-month — though I don’t believe it. My faith in this metric continues to waver. Prices are down 3.3% year-over-year, which is probably the more honest read. I’ll be candid: I was expecting flatter pricing. Building inventory typically puts downward pressure on values, and the market did soften noticeably after the conflict with Iran. Uncertainty isn’t great for buyer confidence or decision-making. My best guess is that mix shift is doing some of the work here — if more higher-end homes closed in April, the median rises even if the broader market is softer. Median pricing is a slippery metric. I’ll be watching this closely.
Days on market are up 130% year-over-year — which sounds like a five-alarm fire until you realize we went from 13 days to 30. Thirteen days was the anomaly. Thirty days is just… a market. Pre-pandemic, nobody would have blinked at a 30-day average. This is normalization, not collapse. That said, the direction of travel is clear: homes that don’t sell in the first weekend are sitting longer, and buyer reluctance on those properties is palpable. Nearly two-thirds of homes are still selling within the first two weeks — and those are the ones getting full asking price.
Seattle continues to outpace the Eastside with 38% of Seattle homes selling over asking at a median of 6% above list, compared to 27% and 2% on the Eastside. That gap has been consistent all year. It’s a reminder that “the market” isn’t monolithic — conditions vary meaningfully by geography, price point, and product type. If you’re making decisions based on regional headlines, you may be working with the wrong map.
A word on interest rates. Hovering just over 6.5% today — let’s call it what it is: psychologically damning, even if actual volatility has been less than a third of a percent. Functionally, not much has changed.
Perceptually, crossing back over 6.5% feels like something. Here’s my honest take: I think now is a genuinely great time to buy — great enough that I’m actively trying to figure out how to buy something myself. Rates just above 6.5% are making buyers pause. The moment rates dip below 6%, those buyers flood back in, inventory gets absorbed, and competition drives prices up. Buy now and you’re essentially purchasing the absence of competition. That advantage tends to disappear quickly.
So what does this all mean?
Sellers: Think price war and beauty contest. The homes winning right now priced correctly from day one and showed up in their best condition. You don’t get a second first impression. When your home hits the market it’s exposed to the largest pool of buyers it will ever see. Price it accordingly and present it thoughtfully, or the market will price it for you. Not in a way you’ll like.
Buyers: More inventory, less competition, and rates that can be refinanced when they eventually move. Know your numbers, know your non-negotiables, and be ready to move with conviction when the right one shows up. Well-priced homes are still going in the first weekend.
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