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Why October Is the Best Time To Buy a Home in 2025
If you’ve been watching from the sidelines, now’s the time to lean in. It’s officially the best time to buy this year. According to Realtor.com, this October will have the most buyer-friendly conditions of any month in 2025:
“By mid-October, buyers across much of the country may finally find the combination of inventory, pricing, and negotiating power they’ve been waiting for—a rare opportunity in a market that has been tight for most of the past decade.”
So, if you’re ready and able to buy right now, shooting for this month means you should see:
- More homes to choose from
- Less competition from other buyers
- More time to browse
- Better home prices
- Sellers who are more willing to negotiate
Just remember, every market is different. For most of the top 50 largest metros, that sweet spot falls in October. But the peak time to buy may be slightly earlier or later, depending on where you live. As Realtor.com explains:
“While Oct. 12–18 is the national “Best Week,” timing can shift depending on the local markets. . .”
Best Week To Buy for the Top 50 Largest Metro Areas
- Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA: September 28 – October 4
- Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX: September 28 – October 4
- Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD: October 12 – 18
- Birmingham, AL: October 19 – 25
- Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH: October 26 – November 1
- Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY: October 12 – 18
- Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC: November 2 – 8
- Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN: September 28 – October 4
- Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN: October 12 – 18
- Cleveland, OH: October 12 – 18
- Columbus, OH: October 12 – 18
- Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX: September 28 – October 4
- Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO: October 12 – 18
- Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI: October 12 – 18
- Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI: September 28 – October 4
- Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT: September 21 – 27
- Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX: October 12 – 18
- Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN: October 26 – November 1
- Jacksonville, FL: October 26 – November 1
- Kansas City, MO-KS: October 12 – 18
- Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV: October 5 – 11
- Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA: October 12 – 18
- Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN: November 2 – 8
- Memphis, TN-MS-AR: September 21 – 27
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL: November 30 – December 6
- Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI: September 7 – 13
- Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI: October 26 – November 1
- Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN: October 12 – 18
- New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ: September 14 – 20
- Oklahoma City, OK: October 12 – 18
- Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL: October 26 – November 1
- Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD: September 7 – 13
- Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ: November 2 – 8
- Pittsburgh, PA: October 12 – 18
- Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA: October 26 – November 1
- Providence-Warwick, RI-MA: October 19 – 25
- Raleigh-Cary, NC: October 12 – 18
- Richmond, VA: October 26 – November 1
- Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA: September 28 – October 4
- Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX: October 12 – 18
- San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA: October 12 – 18
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA: October 19 – 25
- Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA: October 19 – 25
- St. Louis, MO-IL: October 12 – 18
- Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL: November 30 – December 6
- Tucson, AZ: October 12 – 18
- Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC: September 21 – 27
- Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV: October 12 – 18
What the Experts Are Saying
And Realtor.com isn’t the only one saying you’ve got an opportunity if you move now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explains:
“Homebuyers are in the best position in more than five years to find the right home and negotiate for a better price. Current inventory is at its highest since May 2020, during the COVID lockdown.”
Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, puts it like this:
“Nationally, now is a good time to buy, if you can afford it . . . with falling mortgage rates and significantly more inventory, buyers have an upper hand in negotiations.”
And NerdWallet says:
“This fall just might be the best window for home buyers in the past five years.”
How To Get Ready for this Golden Window
To make sure you’re ready to jump in whenever your market’s best time to buy arrives, talk to a local agent now. They’ll be able to give you more information on your market’s peak time, why it’s good for you, and the steps you’ll need to take to get ready.
Bottom Line
If you’re serious about buying, getting prepped for this October window is a smart play.
Want help lining up your strategy? Let’s have a quick conversation so you’ve got the information you need to be ready for this prime buying time.
Downsizing Without Debt: How More Homeowners Are Buying Their Next House in Cash
If you’ve been thinking about downsizing to lower your expenses, be closer to family, or just make life easier, here’s a trend worth paying attention to:
More homeowners are buying their next house outright, without taking on a new mortgage. And, if you’ve owned your home for a while, you may be able to do the same. No mortgage. No monthly housing payments.
A Record Share of Homeowners Are Mortgage-Free
According to analysis from ResiClub of Census data, more than 40% of U.S. owner-occupied homes are mortgage-free – an all-time high for this data series. That means 4 in 10 homeowners own their homes free and clear (see graph below):
One big reason for this trend? Demographics. As Baby Boomers age and stay in their homes longer, many have had the time to fully pay off their mortgages. You might be in that group too and not even realize just how much buying power you now have. It’s time to change that.
How Downsizers Are Turning Equity into Buying Power
As a homeowner, your equity is your biggest advantage in today’s market. If you’re mortgage-free (or close to it), it could give you the power to buy your next home in cash. That means you’d still have no mortgage payment in retirement, plus:
- Less financial stress as you age
- More cash flow, if you purchase a less expensive home
- And it would likely be a faster, simpler transaction
Here’s how it works. You’d sell your current house and use the proceeds to buy your next house in cash. And while that may sound like something you thought would never be possible for you, it’s more realistic than you may think.
In the latest survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM), agents reported the share of purchases with all-cash buyers is climbing nationally. And those agents are seeing increases in almost every region of the country (see graph below):
For Baby Boomers especially, buying in cash gives you more control over your next chapter. You could buy a smaller, less expensive home and have lower costs, less upkeep, and more flexibility to enjoy what matters most. All while staying debt and stress free.
Because downsizing isn’t about downgrading your home. It’s about upgrading your quality of life. And that’s something worth exploring.
Bottom Line
You’ve worked hard for your home. Now it might be time for it to work hard for you.
Let’s talk about what your house is worth, and what it could unlock for you today. What would your ideal home look like if you were to downsize right now?
September Stats
Year-over-year, median prices are basically flat, but they did slip month-over-month for the 4th month in a row. As always, take pricing with a grain of salt—it’s one of the trickiest stats to pin down. With September’s burst of activity and (slightly) lower interest rates, buyer demand will likely keep prices steady through the rest of the year.
Inventory now sits at 2.5 months—technically a balanced market. But here’s the kicker: this is the first time in a decade we’ve seen August’s months of inventory at this level. It feels dramatic because it’s new, but it’s not doomsday. Think of it as shifting from the freeway fast lane at 85 mph down to a solid 55 mph. Is it slower? Sure. But you’re still moving forward.
And the sky? Definitely not falling. Roughly one-third of homes are still selling at or above asking, and two-thirds are going under contract within 30 days. That’s not weakness—it’s recalibration toward a healthier, more sustainable pace.
Buyers: enjoy the breathing room, but stay sharp—19% of homes still sold with multiple offers last month.
Sellers: pricing and presentation matter more than ever. Nail both in the first two weeks if you want top results.
What a Fed Rate Cut Could Mean for Mortgage Rates
The Federal Reserve (the Fed) meets this week, and expectations are high that they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate. But does that mean mortgage rates will drop? Let’s clear up the confusion.
The Fed Doesn’t Directly Set Mortgage Rates
Right now, all eyes are on the Fed. Most economists expect they’ll cut the Federal Funds Rate at their mid-September meeting to try to head off a potential recession.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are already betting on it. There’s virtually a 100% chance of a September cut. And based on what we know now, there’s about a 92% chance it’ll be a small cut (25 basis points) and an 8% chance it will be a bigger cut (50 basis points):
So, what exactly is the Federal Funds Rate? It’s the short-term interest rate banks charge each other. It impacts borrowing costs across the economy, but it’s not the same thing as mortgage rates. Still, the Fed’s actions can shape the direction mortgage rates take next.
Why Markets Already Saw This Cut Coming
Here’s the part that may surprise you. Mortgage rates tend to respond to what the financial markets think the Fed will do, before the Fed officially acts. Basically, when markets anticipate a Fed cut, that outlook gets priced into mortgage rates ahead of time.
That’s exactly what happened after weaker-than-expected jobs reports on August 1 and September 5. Each time, mortgage rates ticked down as financial markets grew more confident a cut was coming soon. And even though inflation rose slightly in the latest CPI report, the Fed is still expected to make a cut.
So, if the Fed goes with a 25-basis point cut, as expected, that’s likely already baked in to current mortgage rates, and we may not see a dramatic drop.
But if they go bigger and drop their Federal Funds Rate by 50 basis points instead, mortgage rates could come down more than they already have.
So, Where Do Mortgage Rates Go from Here?
While the upcoming cut may not move the needle much, many experts expect the Fed could cut the Federal Funds Rate more than once before the end of the year. Of course, that’s if the economy continues to cool (see graph below):
As Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, explains:
“For mortgage rates, investor confidence in a forthcoming rate-cutting cycle could help push borrowing costs lower in the back half of 2025, offering some relief to housing affordability and potentially helping to boost buyer demand and overall market activity.”
If multiple rate cuts happen, or even if markets just believe they will, mortgage rates could ease further in the months ahead. But here’s the catch – all of this depends on how the economy evolves. Surprise inflation data or unexpected shifts could quickly change the outlook.
Bottom Line
Mortgage rates likely won’t drop sharply overnight, and they won’t mirror the Fed’s moves one-for-one. But if the Fed begins a rate-cutting cycle, and markets continue to expect it, mortgage rates could trend lower later this year and into 2026.
If you’ve been waiting and watching the housing market, now’s the time to talk strategy. Even small changes in rates can make a meaningful difference in affordability, and understanding what’s ahead helps you make the best decision for your situation.
What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory
You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary.
But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely.
Why This Isn’t Like 2008
While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.
To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner).
When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):
So, saying we’re near 2008 levels for new construction isn’t the same as the inventory surplus we did the last time.
Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade
And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.
The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange):
Basically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would take roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.
Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.
Bottom Line
Just because there are more new homes for sale right now, it doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The data shows today’s overall inventory situation is different.
If you have questions or want to talk about what builders are doing in our area, let’s connect.
