Uncategorized • May 8, 2020

Unemployment: Hope on the Horizon

by Sandi Tampa

Tomorrow, the unemployment rate for April 2020 will be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. It will hit a peak this country has never seen before, with data representing real families and lives affected by this economic slowdown. The numbers will alarm us. There will be headlines and doomsday scenarios in the media. There is hope, though, that as businesses reopen, most people will become employed again soon.

Last month’s report indicated we initially lost over 700,000 jobs in this country, and the unemployment rate quickly rose to 4.4%. With the release of the new data, that number will climb even higher. Experts forecast this report will show somewhere between a 15% – 20% national unemployment rate, and some anticipate that number to be even greater (see graph below):

What’s happened over the last several weeks?

Here’s a breakdown of this spring’s weekly unemployment filings:The good news shown here indicates the number of additional unemployment claims has decreased week over week since the beginning of April. Carlos Rodriguez, CEO of Automatic Data Processing (ADP) says based on what he’s seeing:

“It’s possible that companies are already anticipating some kind of normalization, opening in certain states and starting to post jobs.”

He goes on to say that this doesn’t mean all companies are hiring, but it could mean they are at the point where they’re not cutting jobs anymore. Let’s hope this trend continues.

What will the future bring?

Most experts predict that while unemployment is high right now, it won’t be that way for long. The length of unemployment during this crisis is projected to be significantly shorter than the duration seen in the Great Recession and the Great Depression.While forecasts may be high, the numbers are trending down and the length of time isn’t expected to last forever.

Bottom Line

Don’t let the headlines rattle you. There’s hope coming as we start to safely reopen businesses throughout the country. Unemployment affects our families, our businesses, and our country. Our job is to rally around those impacted and do our part to support them through this time.

Uncategorized • April 20, 2020

Today’s Homebuyers Want Lower Prices. Sellers Disagree.

by Sandi Tampa

The uncertainty the world faces today due to the COVID-19 pandemic is causing so many things to change. The way we interact, the way we do business, even the way we buy and sell real estate is changing. This is a moment in time that’s even sparking some buyers to search for a better deal on a home. Sellers, however, aren’t offering a discount these days; they’re holding steady on price.

According to the most recent NAR Flash Survey (a survey of real estate agents from across the country), agents were asked the following two questions:

1. “Have any of your sellers recently reduced their price to attract buyers?”

Their answer: 72% said their sellers have not lowered prices to attract buyers during this health crisis.

2. “Are home buyers expecting lower prices now?”

Their answer: 63% of agents said their buyers were looking for a price reduction of at least 5%.

What We Do Know

In today’s market, with everything changing and ongoing questions around when the economy will bounce back, it’s interesting to note that some buyers see this time as an opportunity to win big in the housing market. On the other hand, sellers are much more confident that they will not need to reduce their prices in order to sell their homes. Clearly, there are two different perspectives at play.

Bottom Line

If you’re a buyer in today’s market, you might not see many sellers lowering their prices. If you’re a seller and don’t want to lower your price, you’re not alone. If you have questions on how to price your home, let’s connect today to discuss your real estate needs and next steps.

Uncategorized • February 4, 2020

Should I Sell My House This Year?

by Sandi Tampa

If one of the questions you’re asking yourself today is, “Should I sell my house this year?” the current Housing Opportunities and Market Experience (HOME) Survey from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) should boost your confidence as it relates to the current selling sentiment in the housing market. Even with all the information overload in the media circling around talk of a possible recession, the upcoming 2020 election, and more, Americans feel good about selling a house now. That’s some news to get excited about!

As the graph below shows, as of Q4 2019, 75% of people surveyed indicate they believe now is a good time to sell a home:In the case of those with a yearly salary of $100,000 or more, the results jumped even higher, coming in at an 82% positive sentiment.

When the study divided the outcomes by region, the results still consistently showed Americans feeling good about selling:

Northeast: 71% positive
Midwest: 76% positive
South: 72% positive
West: 81% positive

In addition to looking at income and region, the report also divided the results by generation, as shown in the graph below:As you can see, many believe that, despite everything going on in the world, it is still a good time to sell a home.

According to NAR, the unsold inventory available today “sits at a 3.0-month supply at the current sales pace,” which is down from a 3.7-month supply in November. The current inventory is half of what we need for a normal or neutral housing market, which should have a 6.0-month supply of unsold inventory. This is good news for sellers, as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, says:

“Home sellers are positioned well, but prospective buyers aren’t as fortunate. Low inventory remains a problem, with first-time buyers affected the most.”

Bottom Line

If you’re ready to list your home, you can feel good about the current sentiment in the market. Let’s get together today to determine the best next step when it comes to selling your house this year.

Uncategorized • March 13, 2019

March Eastside Market Update

by Sandi Tampa

February’s Eastside stats are in! Month-over-month, supply decreased by 5% to 1.9 months, which puts us solidly in a seller’s market. That said, it’s a stark difference from this time last year where we were at 0.8 months of an inventory—42% lower (70 miles per hour now vs 166 miles per hour then). Evidence of the changed market shows in the number of homes with multiple offers—20% in 2019 vs 51% in 2018. Also, the median amount over asking price is 2% now vs 8% in 2018.

Year-over-year, median prices are down 9%, this is combined condos and single family homes. I don’t put much weight in this number, as there are many, many variables to this. If you look only at single-family we are off by 5%, this feels more accurate, as prices escalated to their height in the February/March timeframe last year. I expect this number to flatten after May.

March is proving to be robust with lots of buyer activity, so I think our more balanced-yet-still-a-seller’s market will be our new normal for the next couple of months which makes it a great time to buy and/or sell.

Uncategorized • March 7, 2019

Windermere Foundation

by Sandi Tampa

I am proud of the Windermere Foundation. It’s a huge part of why I love Windermere. I had the privilege to be on the board for 3 years, so I witnessed the integrity and awesomeness of the program. We give back to our communities and the families in those communities. Good stuff!

Uncategorized • February 19, 2019

February Eastside Market Update

by Sandi Tampa

January’s Eastside stats are in! Year-over-year median prices are up 2%, but for single family homes only, prices are down 3%. Basically, prices are flat, as pricing is tricky to gauge (due to variations in home sizes, condition, location, ect). Also, 12% of homes did sell over asking price, many of these were after a price drop, which illustrates the price sensitive nature of our market.

Months of inventory is at 2.0 based on pending sales, but if you look at closed sales the number is 3.1. Anything less than 3 months of inventory is a seller’s market, so we are still in a seller’s market leaning towards a balanced market. Year-over-year, this is a 122% increase in inventory. This makes sense, as there were 130% more active listings, 23% more new listings, and 17% less pendings in January 2019 versus 2018. It’s clear the market has changed, but is still strong—just not crazy. Again, we are now traveling at 70 miles per hour vs 155 miles per hour.

Uncategorized • February 12, 2019

Snowpocalypse Update

by Sandi Tampa

Yes, the snow has slowed things down, but mostly new listings coming on the market. Also, it is challenging showing home in the snow—what does the yard really look like? That said, homes are still selling. In fact, both my new listings sold. With mid-winter break next week, it will be interesting to see if there is a flurry (pun intended) of new listings after or during.

Uncategorized • January 24, 2019

Just Listed in Washington Square

by Sandi Tampa

10610 NE 9th place #2202 Bellevue, WA from Portland Property Films on Vimeo.

I’m pleased to present this fantastic, view condo in Washington Square, one of downtown Bellevue’s premier condo high-rises. There are many things to love, but the two walls of floor-to-ceiling windows are my favorite. That said, the location is unbeatable—walkable to shops and restaurants, as well as the Bellevue Library, Bellevue Park and the Bellevue Transit center.

Open: Saturday, January 26th, from 1 PM to 3 PM

Address: 10610 NE 9^th Pl, #2202, Bellevue 98004

Details: 2 bedrooms | 2 baths | 1,173 sq ft | Built in 2008 | 2 parking spaces in the secure garage

More photos and information: http://sanditampa.com/listing/90408820

Uncategorized • January 18, 2019

Janaury 2019 Eastside Market Update

by Sandi Tampa

December’s stats are in! We are still in a seller’s market with 2.4 months of inventory, but the effects of having 200% more inventory from last year is illustrated by the flat year-over-year price appreciation. It’s like pricing rewound a year. That said, we are 2 weeks into the new year and buyer activity is strong.

Real Estate Forecast • January 8, 2019

2019 Economic and Housing Forecast

by Sandi Tampa

What a year it has been for both the U.S. economy and the national housing market. After several years of above-average economic and home price growth, 2018 marked the start of a slowdown in the residential real estate market. As the year comes to a close, it’s time for me to dust off my crystal ball to see what we can expect in 2019.

The U.S. Economy

Despite the turbulence that the ongoing trade wars with China are causing, I still expect the U.S. economy to have one more year of relatively solid growth before we likely enter a recession in 2020. Yes, it’s the dreaded “R” word, but before you panic, there are some things to bear in mind.

Firstly, any cyclical downturn will not be driven by housing. Although it is almost impossible to predict exactly what will be the “straw that breaks the camel’s back”, I believe it will likely be caused by one of the following three things: an ongoing trade war, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates too quickly, or excessive corporate debt levels. That said, we still have another year of solid growth ahead of us, so I think it’s more important to focus on 2019 for now.

The U.S. Housing Market

Existing Home Sales

This paper is being written well before the year-end numbers come out, but I expect 2018 home sales will be about 3.5% lower than the prior year. Sales started to slow last spring as we breached affordability limits and more homes came on the market. In 2019, I anticipate that home sales will rebound modestly and rise by 1.9% to a little over 5.4 million units.

Existing Home Prices

We will likely end 2018 with a median home price of about $260,000 – up 5.4% from 2017. In 2019 I expect prices to continue rising, but at a slower rate as we move toward a more balanced housing market. I’m forecasting the median home price to increase by 4.4% as rising mortgage rates continue to act as a headwind to home price growth.

New Home Sales

In a somewhat similar manner to existing home sales, new home sales started to slow in the spring of 2018, but the overall trend has been positive since 2011. I expect that to continue in 2019 with sales increasing by 6.9% to 695,000 units – the highest level seen since 2007.

That being said, the level of new construction remains well below the long-term average. Builders continue to struggle with land, labor, and material costs, and this is an issue that is not likely to be solved in 2019. Furthermore, these constraints are forcing developers to primarily build higher-priced homes, which does little to meet the substantial demand by first-time buyers.

Mortgage Rates

In last year’s forecast I suggested that 5% interest rates would be a 2019 story, not a 2018 story. This prediction has proven accurate with the average 30-year conforming rates measured at 4.87% in November, and highly unlikely to breach the 5% barrier before the end of the year.

In 2019, I expect interest rates to continue trending higher, but we may see periods of modest contraction or leveling. We will likely end the year with the 30-year fixed rate at around 5.7%, which means that 6% interest rates are more apt to be a 2020 story.

I also believe that non-conforming (or jumbo) rates will remain remarkably competitive. Banks appear to be comfortable with the risk and ultimately, the return, that this product offers, so expect jumbo loan yields to track conforming loans quite closely.

Conclusions

There are still voices out there that seem to suggest the housing market is headed for calamity and that another housing bubble is forming, or in some cases, is already deflating. In all the data that I review, I just don’t see this happening. Credit quality for new mortgage holders remains very high and the median down payment (as a percentage of home price) is at its highest level since 2004.

That is not to say that there aren’t several markets around the country that are overpriced, but just because a market is overvalued, does not mean that a bubble is in place. It simply means that forward price growth in these markets will be lower to allow income levels to rise sufficiently.

Finally, if there is a big story for 2019, I believe it will be the ongoing resurgence of first-time buyers. While these buyers face challenges regarding student debt and the ability to save for a down payment, they are definitely on the comeback and likely to purchase more homes next year than any other buyer demographic.

Originally published on Inman News and the Windermere.com Blog.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.